ASML Q3 2025 Earnings Summary: Solid Execution, Record EUV Orders, and AI-Driven Momentum
Balancing Near-Term Cyclicality with Structural Tailwinds from AI and Advanced Node Demand
ASML delivered a steady Q3, with total net sales of €7.5 billion coming in within guidance but slightly below consensus (€7.75B). EPS of €5.49 narrowly topped expectations, supported by a strong gross margin of 51.6% and an operating margin of 32.8%, both exceeding forecasts. Despite softer top-line results, profitability, bookings, and visibility into next year remained strong. Management reaffirmed expectations for a solid Q4 ramp and guided for FY25 sales growth of roughly 15% year-over-year, with a full-year gross margin near 52%, underscoring continued operational discipline and confidence in demand tied to AI-related semiconductor investment.
Key Financial Highlights
Total Net Sales: €7.5B (vs. €7.75B consensus)
EPS: €5.49 (beat consensus)
Gross Margin: 51.6% (above guidance and consensus)
Operating Margin: 32.8% (expanded YoY)
Bookings: €5.4B (highest EUV order intake in ~2 years)
EUV Orders: €3.6B (53% Logic / 47% Memory)
Installed Base Management Sales: €2.0B (in line with guidance)
FY25 Revenue Growth Outlook: ~15% YoY
Full-Year Gross Margin Guidance: ~52%
EUV Demand and High-NA Acceleration
EUV bookings of €3.6 billion marked ASML’s strongest quarter in nearly two years, driven by both logic and next-generation DRAM customers. The mix shift toward advanced nodes continues to increase lithography intensity, as customers migrate from multi-patterning DUV to single-exposure EUV to meet AI-era performance requirements. ASML’s High-NA EUV systems are ramping faster than anticipated, with over 300,000 wafers processed to date and SK hynix receiving its first EXE:5200 system. The company also began shipping its new XT:260 platform for 3D packaging and heterogeneous integration — technologies crucial to AI chip scaling and advanced packaging applications.
Strategic Partnerships and AI Integration
ASML announced a €1.3 billion strategic investment in Mistral AI, taking an 11% stake and a seat on its strategic committee. The partnership aims to embed AI and advanced algorithms into ASML’s tools to improve performance, yield, and development speed. Integrating AI capabilities across its product portfolio enhances the company’s competitive moat and reinforces its role as a critical enabler of semiconductor scaling in the AI era.
Outlook and Guidance
Management reaffirmed a strong Q4 ramp and guided FY25 revenue growth of roughly 15% YoY, with gross margins around 52%. Bookings and backlog provide healthy visibility into 2026, with management emphasizing that next year’s revenue is expected to meet or exceed 2025 levels. While China demand will decline sharply due to export restrictions, robust AI-related DRAM and logic orders, combined with accelerating High-NA adoption, are expected to offset regional headwinds.
Here’s Our Take
ASML’s Q3 results highlight steady execution amid near-term macro moderation, with EUV demand and AI-related node migration driving long-term strength. The company’s accelerating High-NA ramp, resilient margins, and strategic investment in AI integration via Mistral underscore its evolution from lithography leader to intelligent systems enabler. While exposure to China and export controls present challenges, ASML’s unmatched technology stack, deep customer relationships, and growing lithography intensity tied to AI compute scaling position it as an indispensable force in the semiconductor value chain. Pullbacks on regional or cyclical concerns remain attractive entry points for long-term investors focused on structural semiconductor growth.
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