ASML Q4 2025 Earnings Summary: AI-Driven Orders Surge as EUV Momentum Accelerates
AI Infrastructure Spending Reignites Chip CapEx as EUV Orders Surge
ASML closed out 2025 with a very strong fourth quarter, highlighted by solid revenue, resilient profitability, and a powerful rebound in customer demand. Q4 revenue came in at €9.7 billion, within guidance, while net income reached €2.8 billion, translating to EPS of €7.35. Gross margin held at a healthy 52.2%, supported by a favorable mix of advanced lithography systems and growing service revenue. While margins were slightly constrained by elevated R&D and SG&A costs, overall execution reflected improving business conditions as semiconductor customers resumed capacity expansion.
The standout headline was orders. The company reported €13.2 billion in net bookings, nearly double consensus expectations, signaling a sharp acceleration in semiconductor capital spending tied to AI, data center, and high-performance computing demand. Management emphasized that customer sentiment and visibility improved meaningfully over the past several months, with capacity expansion plans being pulled forward across both logic and memory segments.
Key Financial Highlights
Revenue: €9.7B (in line with guidance)
Net Income: €2.8B
EPS: €7.35
Gross Margin: 52.2%
Q4 Net Bookings: €13.2B
EUV systems: €7.4B
Non-EUV systems: €5.8B
Free Cash Flow (Q4): €10.9B
Cash & Investments: €13.3B
2025 Backlog: ~€38.8B
Order Momentum and AI Infrastructure Tailwinds
Demand strength was broad-based, with Logic accounting for 44% of bookings and Memory 56%, reflecting accelerating investment in both advanced logic nodes and AI-related memory. Logic customers are migrating from 4nm to 3nm production and preparing for 2nm ramps, while memory customers are expanding capacity for HBM and advanced DRAM, both of which require higher EUV intensity.
These dynamics are increasing the number of ASML tools required per fab, particularly EUV systems, which remain the company’s most strategic and differentiated products. Management highlighted that customers are increasingly converting complex multi-patterning DUV steps into single-exposure EUV, driving both tool demand and long-term service revenue.
Technology Leadership: EUV and High-NA Progress
ASML continues to extend its technological leadership. During the quarter, EUV system sales totaled €3.6 billion, including two High-NA systems. Intel has now qualified High-NA EUV for high-volume manufacturing, and ASML expects additional High-NA deliveries in 2026 as customers prepare for next-generation nodes.
Beyond lithography, metrology and inspection systems grew strongly in 2025, and management expects further growth as customers invest more heavily in process control to improve yields at advanced nodes. Installed Base Management revenue also continues to scale as the global EUV footprint expands and customers pursue performance upgrades.
Outlook, Guidance, and Capital Returns
Looking ahead, management guided to 2026 revenue of €34–39 billion, with gross margins expected to remain in the 51–53%range. Q1 2026 revenue is expected to be €8.2–8.9 billion, reflecting seasonality but still supported by strong service and upgrade demand.
Capital returns remain a key pillar of the investment case. ASML plans a 17% increase in its 2025 dividend to €7.50 per share and announced a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028, underscoring confidence in long-term cash generation and demand visibility.
Here’s Our Take
ASML’s Q4 results reinforce its position as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the global AI infrastructure build-out. While revenue and margins were solid rather than spectacular, the surge in bookings provides compelling evidence that a new semiconductor investment cycle is gaining momentum. Accelerating demand for advanced logic, AI-driven memory, and EUV-intensive manufacturing places ASML squarely at the center of the next wave of capacity expansion.
With unmatched technology, rising lithography intensity, a growing service base, and strong capital returns, the company remains a long-term core holding. Valuation has moved higher following the rally, but improving fundamentals, expanding visibility into 2026, and the company’s irreplaceable role in next-generation chip manufacturing continue to support a constructive long-term outlook.
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