Daily Market Recap – Friday Feb 14, 2025
Markets End Mixed in Quiet Trading, But S&P 500 and Nasdaq Log Weekly Gains
U.S. equities closed narrowly mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.37%, the S&P 500 flat (+0.01%), and the Nasdaq up 0.41%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.10%. However, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first weekly gains in three weeks. Big tech was mostly higher, with Nvidia (NVDA) leading and Meta (META) marking its 20th consecutive daily gain. Outperformers included energy, autos, industrial metals, banks, credit cards, homebuilders, casinos, airlines, and China tech, while laggards included software, healthcare, apparel retail, and managed care.
Treasuries rallied, continuing Thursday's yield pullback. The dollar fell 0.5%, marking its fourth weekly decline in five weeks. Gold slipped 1.5%, and WTI crude fell 0.8%, capping a small weekly decline. Bitcoin futures rose 1.5%.
Key Market Drivers: Retail Sales, Tariffs, Inflation Takeaways
Retail sales for January fell 0.9% m/m, much weaker than the expected 0.1% decline, though December was revised higher. Auto sales were weak as expected, and control-group sales (which feed into GDP) unexpectedly declined.
Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans remain a focus, but the market found relief in the delayed implementation and negotiation offers to impacted countries, including India's Modi announcing his intent to engage.
Inflation concerns remain, but positive revisions to December data and a more muted impact on core PCE helped ease concerns following this week's hot CPI and PPI reports.
Rate-cut expectations have now shifted further into the second half of 2025, but Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony did not spook markets.
Geopolitics remains in focus, with Ukraine ceasefire hopes gaining traction, though the Munich Security Conference could bring new developments.
Notable Earnings & Corporate Updates
Semiconductors & AI:
Applied Materials (AMAT) guided lower on export control headwinds.
Dell (DELL) reportedly near a deal to sell $5B of AI servers to xAI.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is reportedly receptive to a deal to operate Intel’s (INTC) U.S. factories at Trump’s request.
Tech & Software:
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) posted a modest beat, though RPO guidance disappointed.
Twilio (TWLO) fell on a softer Q1 EPS guide and weak customer growth.
Roku (ROKU) posted a Q4 beat but guided mixed for FY25.
Consumer & Travel:
DraftKings (DKNG) beat on EBITDA and raised FY25 revenue guidance.
Airbnb (ABNB) beat on key metrics, though Q1 revenue guidance was weighed down by FX and calendar factors.
Goodyear Tire (GT) posted a solid Q4, with strength in EMEA.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat expectations, with Las Vegas and Macau both ahead.
Top Gainers
+83.5% | WeRide (WRD) – Nvidia disclosed a 1.7M share stake in latest 13F filing.
+17.3% | Goodyear Tire (GT) – Beat on earnings and revenue, with better-than-expected volumes in EMEA.
+16.5% | Procore (PCOR) – Q4 revenue beat; strong RPO backlog momentum.
+15.2% | DraftKings (DKNG) – Raised FY25 guidance despite weaker-than-expected NFL outcomes.
+14.5% | Airbnb (ABNB) – Strong Nights & Experiences booked, multiple analyst upgrades.
Top Decliners
-28.1% | SoundHound AI (SOUN) – Nvidia's latest 13F filing showed it exited its stake.
-21.5% | Informatica (INFA) – Q4 revenue missed; weaker cloud renewal rates and net new bookings.
-15.0% | Twilio (TWLO) – EPS guidance missed; weak Segment performance flagged.
-14.3% | GoDaddy (GDDY) – Strong A&C segment growth offset by slowing FCF and weaker aftermarket business.
-11.1% | DaVita (DVA) – EPS and revenue beat, but lower new dialysis admits and weaker FY25 guidance weighed.
Investment Takeaways
Markets found relief in Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan, as delayed implementation and room for negotiations softened the potential impact.
Inflation remains a key focus, with hot CPI and PPI data pushing rate-cut expectations further out into late 2025.
AI and semiconductor deals remain strong, with Dell’s reported $5B xAI deal and TSM considering running Intel’s U.S. fabs highlighting industry shifts.
Retail sales were weak, but December revisions helped offset some concerns.
Geopolitical risks remain, with Ukraine ceasefire hopes, China’s economic shifts, and Middle East tensions in focus.
Looking ahead, U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but the coming week will feature housing data, regional Fed manufacturing indices, and January FOMC minutes. Markets will be closely watching for any shifts in the rate-cut narrative and further clarity on Trump’s tariff plans.