Market Recap – Friday, August 15, 2025
Stocks Take a Breather After Strong Week
Markets ended the week on a quiet note, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq off 0.4%, and small caps giving back 0.6%. The Dow inched up just 0.08%, thanks to gains in health care and retail. Still, all major indexes posted solid weekly gains, especially the Russell 2000, which just had its best week since June.
Friday’s action was muted despite a hotter retail sales report, mixed earnings, and political headlines. Sectors like semiconductors (AMAT), banks, energy, and China tech stocks slipped, while managed care (UNH), biotech, department stores, airlines, and homebuilders outperformed. Big Tech was mixed. Intel rose again on news the government might take a stake, while Cisco and Roblox fell after disappointing news.
Elsewhere, Treasury yields climbed, especially on the long end, with the 30-year moving above 4.90%. The dollar weakened, gold slid 0.8%, and oil dropped 1.8%. Bitcoin plunged 5%, continuing this week’s volatility.
What Moved the Market Today
Retail Sales Beat, Consumer Sentiment Weakens: July retail sales came in as expected at +0.5%, but June got a big upward revision. The more important “control group” (used to track GDP) also beat. But consumer sentiment fell sharply, hitting its lowest level since May on inflation and job concerns. Inflation expectations ticked up again.
Fed Watch: Despite some hot inflation prints this week (PPI), markets are still pricing in a 25bp rate cut in September, though hopes for a bigger 50bp cut are fading. Fed officials including SF’s Daly and Vice Chair Bowman reiterated that the Fed can start cutting soon, but likely not aggressively.
Earnings Recap:
Winners: UNH (+12%) surged after Buffett and Tepper disclosed new positions. Intel (+2.9%) extended gains on possible government stake. Twilio (+4.8%) jumped after news it’s joining the S&P MidCap 400.
Losers: Applied Materials (-14%) tanked on weak guidance, blaming softer China demand and licensing issues. Cisco (-4.5%) was downgraded. Roblox (-6.3%) was sued by Louisiana over child safety issues.
Politics and Geopolitics: The Trump-Putin summit generated little reaction, with expectations low heading into the weekend. Trump did hint at new steel and chip tariffs to be announced next week, while Nvidia and AMD reportedly agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of certain China-related revenues to secure export licenses.
Here’s Our Take
Markets took a break today after a strong week, digesting hot inflation, resilient economic data, and political headlines. Despite a mixed bag of earnings and growing tariff chatter, investors appear confident in the Fed’s path toward cutting rates, albeit at a modest pace. The resilient consumer, solid earnings season, and AI-driven optimism continue to support stocks, though rising yields and inflation surprises may create more volatility ahead. All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole next week, which could set the tone for September’s policy decision. For now, the bull case remains intact — but with risks worth watching.
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