Market Recap – Friday, March 21, 2025
Stocks End Modestly Higher, Capping Weekly Rebound
U.S. equities closed mostly higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow each up 0.08%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.52% and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.56%. The session marked a quiet end to the week, but it was enough for all major indices (except the Russell) to post their first weekly gains after four consecutive declines. Food, media, biotech, apparel manufacturers, and money center banks led the day’s advances. Big tech was mostly higher, though Nvidia (NVDA) lagged. On the downside were parcels/logistics (FDX), industrial metals, homebuilders, department stores, and machinery.
Treasuries were mixed with modest curve steepening, and yields ended lower on the week. The dollar gained 0.2%, gold slipped 0.7%, Bitcoin futures dipped 0.3%, and WTI crude added 0.3%, supported by new U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil buyers.
Subdued Session, but Positioning and Flows Supportive
There were few headlines to drive action, though equities rallied modestly into the close. Sentiment remained cautious following a mixed batch of high-profile earnings on Thursday, which added to concern over potential negative Q1 preannouncements and downward revisions to 2025 consensus estimates. Still, some tailwinds from positioning and flows (notably CTA net shorts and quarter-end rebalancing) helped prop up markets, with the largest weekly inflow to U.S. equities in 2025 also providing support.
Trump's latest comments on trade hinted at potential flexibility on reciprocal tariffs, offering some temporary relief, although the upcoming April 2 deadline remains a major overhang. Meanwhile, hard economic data continued to outshine soft sentiment, further tempering growth concerns.
Earnings Highlights and Corporate News
Micron (MU -8%) beat Q2 expectations and guided Q3 ahead, with strong HBM demand a key theme, but was weighed down by soft gross margins and inventory concerns after a strong YTD run.
Nike (NKE -5.5%) posted solid Q3 results but guided Q4 revenue below expectations, citing macro headwinds and restructuring challenges.
FedEx (FDX -6.4%) missed on earnings and cut FY guidance, flagging a “very challenging” U.S. industrial economy.
Lennar (LEN -4.1%) beat on EPS and orders, but gross margins disappointed, and the company noted weaker consumer confidence and persistent housing market pressure.
Boeing (BA +3%) got a boost after reports it was selected for a $20B+ next-gen fighter jet contract.
Alnylam (ALNY +11.8%) jumped on FDA approval of its ATTR-CM treatment, the first of its kind.
Super Micro (SMCI +7.8%) rebounded on a JPM upgrade, as filing concerns receded and the Blackwell ramp gained visibility.
Fed Commentary Returns Post-Meeting
Post-FOMC blackout Fed commentary resumed, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating he remains data dependent and not concerned about stagflation, while NY Fed President Williams reiterated that the Fed remains well-positioned to adjust to evolving economic conditions. Both officials emphasized the transitory nature of tariff-driven inflation risks, echoing Powell’s dovish tone from Wednesday’s press conference.
Here’s Our Take
Markets ended the week on firmer ground, buoyed by supportive flows, resilient hard data, and a Fed that appears flexible and focused on growth risks. Still, investors are entering a tricky stretch marked by lingering macro headwinds, tariff uncertainty, and a possible wave of downward earnings revisions ahead of Q1 reporting season. The absence of a major “Trump tariff bomb” helped sentiment this week, but the 2-Apr reciprocal tariff deadline looms large.
With sentiment still cautious, cleaner positioning, stronger inflows, and better-than-feared economic data may continue to underpin short-term market resilience—but earnings clarity and trade developments will be key catalysts for direction in the coming weeks.