Market Recap - Monday, August 11, 2025
Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Brace for Inflation Data Dow -0.45% | S&P 500 -0.25% | Nasdaq -0.30% | Russell 2000 -0.09%
Markets slipped modestly today to start the week, with all major indexes finishing in the red. After opening higher, stocks faded throughout the session as investors stayed cautious ahead of Tuesday’s big inflation report. The S&P 500 remains less than 1% below record highs, but the market mood felt more like “wait and see.”
Energy, transports, and homebuilders were among the worst performers, while semiconductors, pharma, and asset managers fared better. Tesla bucked the big tech weakness with a gain, and retail-trader favorites and short-squeeze names outperformed. Treasury yields dipped slightly after a big run-up last week. Gold tumbled over 2.5% after Trump confirmed it would be excluded from tariff hikes. Bitcoin rose 2.3%, and oil was flat.
What Moved the Market
All Eyes on CPI: Investors are in holding mode ahead of Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation is expected to tick higher, and there's debate over whether tariffs are already feeding into core goods prices.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise: Dovish Fed rhetoric continued over the weekend, with Vice Chair Bowman signaling support for three rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing a 90%+ chance of a cut in September.
Tariff Headlines: Trump called on China to increase soybean imports before the August 12 deadline for the tariff truce. Reports later suggested a 90-day extension is likely. Trump also hinted at loosening chip export restrictions, allowing Nvidia to sell downgraded Blackwell chips to China.
Fed Chair Speculation: The search continues, with Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan reportedly in the mix alongside front-runner Waller. Markets seem to prefer continuity, hoping for a less politicized Fed.
Corporate & Earnings Highlights
It’s a much quieter week on the earnings front, with only about 1% of S&P 500 companies reporting. However, a few movers made headlines today:
Micron (+4.1%) raised guidance on improving DRAM pricing.
Intel (+3.7%) CEO met with Trump amid ongoing chip policy drama.
Albemarle (+7%) and other lithium stocks jumped after a China mine suspension.
Avantor (+5.2%) rose on activist interest from Engine Capital.
Tegna (+29.8%) surged on a report that Nexstar is in advanced talks to acquire the company.
C3.ai (-25.6%) tumbled after a weak preannouncement and called results “unacceptable.”
monday.com (-29.8%) dropped despite a beat, with guidance disappointing investors.
Here’s Our Take
The market seems to be holding its breath. With CPI data on deck and Fed policy in focus, investors are playing defense. Rate cut expectations remain high, but sticky inflation or tariff-driven price spikes could shift the narrative quickly. Today’s modest pullback reflects that unease — especially after last week’s strong rally. Meanwhile, political developments around trade, chips, and Fed appointments are starting to blur into market risk. If CPI surprises to the upside tomorrow, it could test the market’s resilience and its optimism on rate cuts. Until then, caution — not panic — is driving the tone.
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