Market Recap - Monday, September 29, 2025
Shutdown Looms, but Stocks Climb — Gold, Bitcoin Rally as Oil Falls
Markets edged higher to start the week, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.26%, the Dow rising 0.15%, and the Nasdaq up 0.48%. The Russell 2000 posted a small 0.04% gain. Stocks rallied off their lows in the final 30 minutes of trading, with strength in semiconductors, software, biotech, media, and homebuilders helping lift the market.
Most-shorted names also saw a bid, and Nvidia stood out among Big Tech gainers. On the flip side, energy lagged as oil prices tumbled, and regional banks, cruise lines, and apparel retailers saw weakness. Treasuries caught a bid, with long-end yields falling ~5bps and the yield curve flattening to its narrowest in nearly two months. Gold jumped another 1.2% to a record high, while Bitcoin futures surged 5%. Oil dropped 3.5% amid reports OPEC+ may raise production in November.
The spotlight was squarely on the looming government shutdown, with last-minute meetings in Washington doing little to ease uncertainty. A short-term continuing resolution is reportedly being floated, but time is running out. Meanwhile, China tensions remained in focus as its Commerce Ministry pushed back against new U.S. export controls. President Trump added fuel by proposing tariffs on foreign furniture and movies, reigniting trade and geopolitical concerns. Still, the macro backdrop remained broadly intact for bulls — upbeat housing data, steady inflation expectations, and a busy M&A tape kept longer-term optimism alive. However, all eyes are now on this week’s labor data (if not delayed by the shutdown), with JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls expected to provide key clues about Fed policy.
Here’s Our Take:
Markets are walking a tightrope — balancing short-term risks like a potential government shutdown and rising U.S.-China trade tensions against longer-term optimism around rate cuts, solid earnings, and economic resilience. Monday’s session reflected this tug-of-war: despite looming political risks and sector-specific headwinds (like falling oil and tariff fears), investors kept faith in the broader recovery story.
What stood out today was the resilience in rate-sensitive and AI-linked names, alongside upbeat housing data and a quiet but steady M&A environment (EA, MRUS, OXY). The continued surge in gold and Bitcoin highlights some hedging behavior amid uncertainty, while the bond market’s rally suggests deeper skepticism about the pace of future growth. For now, markets remain cautiously constructive — but the rest of this week, especially the jobs data and shutdown outcome, will go a long way in shaping near-term sentiment.
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