Market Recap - Thursday, December 4, 2025
Stocks Tread Water as Markets Await AI & Fed Signals
U.S. stocks ended today little changed, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.11% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.22%, while the Dow was flat and small-caps outperformed again with the Russell 2000 up 0.76%. It was a choppy session as markets struggled to find a clear direction, with investors digesting a mixed batch of earnings, economic data, and corporate headlines — all while waiting on next week’s Fed decision and more big AI developments.
Under the surface, there was plenty of action. Dollar General, Hormel, and UiPath rallied after better-than-expected results, while Snowflake and PVH fell on growth concerns and margin pressure. Meta was a standout after reports it plans to slash its metaverse budget, and Salesforce climbed on upbeat signals about its AI platform. Meanwhile, retail names like Kroger and Costco underperformed following disappointing sales figures, and cruise lines, homebuilders, and industrial metals lagged.
On the macro front, initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since September 2022, reinforcing the idea that the labor market remains firm. However, layoffs are still piling up in sectors like telecom and tech — Challenger data shows over 1.1 million job cuts so far in 2025, the highest since 2020. Treasury yields ticked up slightly and the dollar regained some ground. Oil climbed over 1% while Bitcoin and gold saw small moves. Trading volume was light, with many investors staying on the sidelines ahead of next week’s major catalysts, including Broadcom and Oracle earnings, the launch of a new OpenAI model, and the final Fed meeting of the year.
Here’s Our Take:
The market continues to grind sideways as investors weigh solid economic fundamentals against micro-level signs of corporate belt-tightening and margin pressures. While cooling inflation and strong jobless claims data suggest the Fed may remain on a dovish path, elevated layoff totals and softer revenue growth in pockets of tech and retail show that not all is smooth sailing.
With sentiment rebounding — evidenced by the largest weekly jump in AAII bull-bear spread in nearly a year — investors are positioning for a year-end rally. But key AI events and next week’s FOMC decision could be make-or-break moments for momentum. We’re seeing more rotation beneath the surface, with selective strength in software, consumer staples, and digital health, while cyclicals and high-beta names remain volatile. The broader trend still looks constructive, but we’re watching closely for signs that leadership is narrowing — or that optimism may be running ahead of fundamentals.
P.S. Know someone who’d appreciate smarter stock insights and clearer investing strategies? Forward this email or share this link: subscribe.triplegains.com
Triple Gains - Stock Analysis - Thematic Insights - Portfolio Strategy
DISCLAIMER: The content provided in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other form of personal recommendation. Nothing in this newsletter should be interpreted as a suggestion to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security. All content is for general informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclaimer, click here.