Market Recap – Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Tariff Talks, Consumer Confidence, and Earnings in Focus

Stocks ended today’s session mostly lower after coming off recent record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted fresh all-time highs but broke a six-day streak of gains. Laggards in the market included sectors like shipping/logistics, pharma, and steel, while outperformers included semiconductors, biotech, and some consumer goods companies. Big tech saw some losses, particularly Tesla and Meta, but there were some notable gainers as well.

Trade deals were a key theme, with the US and EU agreeing on a 15% tariff rate, and the US and China reportedly extending their tariff truce by another 90 days. Despite mixed earnings reports and some economic data showing weaker housing and job openings, there is still a bullish narrative around resilient US macroeconomic conditions, AI growth, and upcoming corporate buybacks.

Key economic data today showed better-than-expected consumer confidence for July, while June's JOLTS job openings were in line with expectations. Additionally, the Treasury auction was well-received despite some concerns around the market's overall sentiment.

Looking ahead, eyes are on the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow and the peak of Q2 earnings, especially from the Mag 7 tech giants. Market concentration, tariff impacts, and inflationary pressures remain in focus as the next round of trade talks and economic data roll in.

Here’s Our Take

Despite some setbacks in sectors like pharma and metals, the broader market remains resilient, supported by earnings beats, AI momentum, and favorable trade developments. However, concerns around higher tariffs and their potential impact on consumer spending and job growth could put pressure on the market in the second half of the year. The upcoming FOMC meeting and the rest of the earnings season will provide more clarity on how these factors will shape the market moving forward. For now, the path of least resistance seems to remain upward, but investors should remain cautious of potential headwinds ahead.

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